Bet the Process Podcast Summary

Episode Overview

• The hosts record during a prediction-market conference in New York and discuss the growing role of prediction markets in sports betting.
• Guest Judah Fortgang, who writes the NFL newsletter Throw the Damn Ball, explains his research-driven approach to handicapping and reviews several teams and matchups.
• The hosts also share a college football pick: James Madison -10.5 at Appalachian State.

Judah’s Handicapping Approach

• His newsletter aims to provide research and matchup analysis, rather than simply publish picks.
• He combines curated and alternative data with team fundamentals to examine:
• How a team’s strengths and weaknesses interact with an opponent
• Which game scripts are plausible
• Where less likely “tail” outcomes may create betting opportunities
• Readers can combine his findings with their own assumptions and models.

Key NFL Takeaways

Packers

• Green Bay’s offense has struggled to run the ball, making its performance more variable and dependent on deep passes.
• The defense could improve considerably when Micah Parsons returns, especially alongside Lucas Van Ness.
• Judah sees the Packers as a team with a high ceiling but a wide range of possible outcomes.

Chiefs

• Judah considers Kansas City the league’s top team at this point.
• The Chiefs are effective both through the air and on the ground, and Patrick Mahomes is especially difficult to deceive with defensive pressure and disguises.
• Their balance makes them relatively dependable across different matchups.

Chargers

• The Chargers’ problems appear deeper than a brief stretch of poor quarterback play.
• Injuries, an ineffective running game, and Justin Herbert’s unusually high rate of turnover-worthy plays have contributed to disappointing results.
• Judah sees little clear evidence of a near-term turnaround.

Packers–Lions

• Detroit’s secondary has been vulnerable, creating opportunities for Green Bay’s deep passing game.
• If Green Bay builds a lead, its pass rush could also pressure Jared Goff.
• The matchup is high-variance: the Packers’ success may hinge on how many deep throws they complete, while Detroit is expected to score.

49ers–Falcons

• Judah sees a possible case for Atlanta, particularly if Mike Evans is unavailable.
• The Falcons have generated pressure with four rushers, which could disrupt Brock Purdy and limit San Francisco’s third-down offense.
• The market line had moved toward the Falcons, making the bet less attractive than at its earlier price.

Eagles

• Judah is pessimistic about Philadelphia’s offense.
• The offensive line and running game have struggled, frequently leaving the team in difficult passing situations.
• Backup quarterback Tanner McKee has looked capable when conditions are favorable but has struggled when plays break down.

Other Matchups

• Patriots–Bears: Judah expects potential scoring, with New England’s ability to hit deep passes an angle of interest.
• Raiders–Rams: He thinks the Raiders’ offense may be better than commonly perceived and could benefit from injuries to the Rams’ defensive tackles.
• Steelers–Saints: Judah sees a potential Steelers angle, while noting Pittsburgh’s pass rush has produced fewer pressures than its individual players’ grades might suggest.

Broader Football Trends

• The running game’s impact may be showing up beyond rushing yards: it can influence play-action, passing opportunities, and the frequency of obvious passing situations.
• Teams that cannot run effectively may repeatedly face long third downs, making their passing offense less efficient.
• The run game can also force defenses to commit players near the line, opening explosive passing opportunities.
• Judah emphasizes that football outcomes depend on how team traits interact in a particular matchup—not just on general team rankings.

Prediction Markets

• Judah says prediction markets have helped his betting primarily through better pricing and greater liquidity.
• He sees many parallels between prediction-market participants and traditional sports-betting professionals, even though the market structures differ.

Picks and Resources

• Bet the Process Heater Pick: James Madison Dukes -10.5 at Appalachian State.
• Judah’s newsletter: Throw the Damn Ball, available at throwthedamnball.com and through his social media links.